For my first blog, Iʻm trying a format based on years of conversations with my engineer buddy, Arash. Iʻll present the condensed points and conclusions and if enough readers want detail, Iʻll consider an addendum.
Before we get started, an image that inspires me… Hawi Wind Farm, right next to Upolu Airport, one of the ten most dangerous airports (due to unpredictable, sometimes violent wind conditions) in the world. And some daredevil runs skydiving out of it 7 days a week!
On to the main topic....
HELCO pricing: The State of Hawaiʻiʻs average residential power prices are 50 cents/kWh. Highest in the nation, with California at second highest, 30 cents/kWh. Hawaiʻi Island is right around 50 too. The predicted HELCO price average during the next 20 years is 85+ cents/kWh.
HELCO renewability and emissions: HELCOʻs Hawaiʻi Island self-reported power portfolio is 60% renewable, 40% oil, which is better than average for the state and appears somewhat impressive. Despite that, HELCO, as of 2021, self reports that 38.4% of their statewide power production is renewable (nearly half of which is produced by customer sited solar and wind!), and statewide CO2 emissions from electricity generation are approximately 1,540 lbs. CO2/MWh, just below the (disappointing) national average of 1,562.4 lbs CO2/MWh. (AVERT, U.S. national weighted average CO2 marginal emission rate, year 2019 data). Californiaʻs latest report reveals a fairly impressive 503 lbs./MWh, and Vermont boasts an eye popping 11 lbs./MWh! Granted, these states enjoy different natural resources, but with Hawaiʻiʻs geothermal, wind, and solar potential it seems we can do better.
Conclusion #1: HELCO gets some points for renewable energy, but emissions are lackluster, and boy oh boy are their customers paying hefty prices for power.
HELCO Alternative: Solar Systems
Option #1: Solar panels only, grid connected systems result in 5 cents/kWh production during the middle 5 hours of the day, but it better be consumed because HELCO is buying it back at only 11 cents/kWh. Bottom line, they wonʻt pay much. Outside of that 5 hours and weʻre back to paying 50 cents/kWh. Itʻs better than not doing it, but by how much? Notably, grid connecting solar panels has become increasingly complicated for the utility, because their system has to transmit and store power now. Believe it, when many customers do it HELCO has problems.
Option #2: Solar panel, battery backed up systems, grid connected are a better answer, so a system doesnʻt need to be oversized. Pay 50 cents when batteries are depleted only, which comes down to how much battery you buy.
Option #3: Solar panel, battery backed up systems, off grid, the holy grail. Now weʻre planning for cloudy days, so need more batteries and a backup generator to top off the batteries, hopefully infrequently, but that all depends on how much battery is purchased. Honda makes small, ultra quiet generators that nobody will know is running. The clincher on going this route is if utility power isnʻt available. That said, if itʻs new construction, and will cost $5-8k for a utility drop and service, plus another $10-30k for trenching and large diameter triplex wire to cross a pasture to a build site, wow, thatʻs a chunk of change with which to buy batteries!
Option #3a: Bonus for buying a Ford Lightning pickup… its batteries can be used to power a home. Very rough calcs imply that buying the Lightning pays for the batteries and the truck is obtained for free. Ford must be getting one heck of a deal on batteries, compared to consumer pricing!
Financial and Environmental Advantages:
-Levelized cost of solar panels only, assuming all the power is used, is 5 cents/kWh.
-Depending on system design and environmental parameters (frequency of one or more consecutive cloudy days), the levelized cost with batteries and a little generator could be 10, 15, 20, or more cents/kWh energy used. But in every reasonable scenario, a consumer will do radically better than the current 50 cents and projected 85 cents average coming from the priciest utility in the nation.
-The environmental impact of any of Options 1, 2, or 3 will be excellent, mainly because HELCOʻs emission numbers arenʻt great.
Conclusion #2: If a consumer canʻt afford to install such a system, look into a PPA agreement with an installer. Theyʻll pay for it and offer a reduced power cost.
Conclusion #3: If a consumer can afford it, go solar in some format asap. Iʻm planning new construction with an off grid system, am only buying electric appliances and power tools, and am on a waiting list for a Ford Lightning. The lifecycle costs and environmental benefit are mathematically unambiguous.
Thanks for reading, I hope this informs your decision making!
Image by Dreamstime.com
Comments